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  1. Tez No: 51892
  2. Yazar: ALAATTİN KIZILTAN
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. CEVAT GERNİ
  4. Tez Türü: Doktora
  5. Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Uluslararası ticaret, Üretim endüstrisi, İhracat, International trade, Production industry, Export
  7. Yıl: 1996
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: Atatürk Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.

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Özet (Çeviri)

ABSTRACT Ph.D.Thesis THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPORTS An Application to the Turkish Manufacturing Industry Alaattin KIZILTAN Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Cevat Gemi 1996, Pages: 160 Jury: Prof.Dr. Cevat Gemi Meeting the foreign exchange needs and increasing the manufacturing exports to realize the structural change of the economy are of essential importance. Until the 1980's, Turkey followed the strategies aiming to balance foreign exchange deficit and foreign exchange revenues. After 1980, different measures were taken in order to stabilize internal and external balance. Some important progresses have been made in the manufacturing export as a result of the changes in trade policy. However, it has been found out that these developments occured by increasing existing capacity rather than making new investments. For this reason, export growth has slowed down after late 1980's and it hasn't changed the economic structure at desired level. In this study, the three basic variables being dominant in Turkish manufacturing exports in the short term and in the long run have been determined; the real exchange rates, the domestic production level, and the world demand. The experiments via ADF test methodology of the time-series used in this study indicate that the level values are not stationary. By using the same test, we have also found out that the series are combined together. In this case, using log-linear model, we have estimated using OLS level values. These estimates which also give long-run elasticities include 1968-79, 1980-93, and 1968-93 periods. According to the results obtained the real exchange rates, the domestic production level, and the world demand have a significant effect upon the Turkish manufacturing exports. However, the most important of all these effects are the world demand before 1980 and the domestic production level after 1980. Although the sector results are different, it can be stated, in general, that the best way of increasing the Turkish manufacturing exports is to increase the production level. On the other hand, according to the Chow test applied, the export relationship between these two periods is the same as a whole. Moreover, the short-run effects of the exogenous variables as well as the long- run relationship amoung the level values of time-series have been estimated by means of“error correction model”. As a matter of fact, the estimation results suggest that the tree variables mentioned above have short-run effects in exports. The highest effect is of the domestic production level, while the lowest effect comes from the world demand. In addition, the short-run relationship does not change significantly between pre-1980 and post-1980 periods.

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