The impact of exchange rate volatility on export demand under the floating exchange rate regime in emerging market economies: Evidence from Turkey
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 402405
- Danışmanlar: DR. JIA MIAO
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Maliye, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Economics, Finance, International Relations
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2012
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Coventry Unıversıty
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
The main purpose of this study is to analyse the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exports under floating exchange rate regime in Turkey over the 2002-2009 period. The project have centered on the role of exchange rate regimes in developing economies and focused on the shift of exchange rate system from fixed to floating exchange rate system in Turkey on February 2002. EMEs are ''defined to be upper-income developing countries with relatively-open capital markets (IMF, 2007, pp. 206–08). EMEs do not mean oil exporting countries which have high income level. In the literature of view it is suggested that, according to the study“Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?”, Economic Modelling 27 (2010) exchange rate fluctuations or turbulances have no negative or significant effect on exports in EMEs. This is explained by adoption to the economic changes with the help of open capital market. The literature of view is based on secondary data, because secondary data from CBT, TUIK, IMF, the World Bank is reliable. Also it is difficult to reach primary data due to bureaucratic behaviour. Johansen co-integrating technique and error correction model is applied in order to evaluate the impact of exchange rate volatility on export demand. The standard deviation,the moving average standard deviation, and GARCH model are used to calculate the volatility of exchange rates. Data presentation section summarises the outcomes of own analyses. In conclusion, it derived that the volatility of Turkish Lira has significant negative impact on export volume of Turkey. The preliminary and financial measures that was taken by Central Bank of Turkey is discussed from different approaches such as reserve accumulation, interest rate policy, capital controls, restrictions on credit expansion and intervention policy. As a recommendation, benefitting from the derivative market and derivative products is advised to the Export Unions.
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