Sanayi işletmelerinde finansal başarısızlığın öngörülmesi üzerine bir deneme
The Study of the prediction of financial failures of the industrial corporations
- Tez No: 51721
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. KOÇ YÜKSEL YALKIN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: İşletme, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal başarısızlık, Finansal oranlar, Regresyon analizi, İflas, Şirketler, Financial failed, Financial rates, Regression analysis, Bankruptcy, Companies
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY In the new economic conditions with the increasing importance of competion, it is becoming more important for the firms to stand up with their own efforts. It is now mo-re significant to show a certain level of performance, to be able to compete with other firms and produce goods and services in accordance with norms of the industry» The competitive price system, however, ensures that only the most effective firms will endure, and that attrition will occur among those companies which for- one reason or another fail to achieve the returns necessary for continued existence. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate emprically the characteristics of failed (bankrupt) corporations and attempt to develop an accurate financial failure predictive model through a multiple Regression Analysis technique using financial and economic ratios as the predictive variables. This paper consists of two parts. The first part is divided into two sections» In the first section of Part 1, the definition of financial failure and causes of this failure were introduced. The second section is devoted to literature survey, involving the most famous univarite and mult i varit e studies in which such methods as Regression Analysis, Logit & Probit Analysis and Discriminant Analysis were made use of» Part 2 covers the methodology and the actual research. Data of the samples were obtained from“ Capital Market. Committee ”and“ Istanbul Stock Exchange ”» The sample firms were selected - 88 ~carefully. The financial tables of £0 non - failed firms and 10 failed firms for one year before financial failure and the financial tables of SO non-failed firms and S failed firms for two years before financial failure were made use of» fts for the results of the study, it is possible to classify corporations into either failed or non-failed groups in accordance with the results of the analysis. The power of financial ratios in predicting the financial failure one and two years before the financial failure are statistically significant. The regresssion model correctly classsified 100 % of the sample one year prior to the financial failure and 32 "A of the sample two years before financial failure. The details concerning the main results of the study are indicated in the conclusion section. - S3
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